Following a Jobless Trend

Optimal Trend Following Trading Rules

This paper is concerned with the optimality of a trend following trading rule. The underlying market is modeled as a bull-bear switching market in which the drift of the stock price switches between two states: the uptrend (bull market) and the downtrend (bear market). Such switching process is modelled as a hidden Markov chain. This is a continuation of our earlier study reported in Dai et al....

The Role of Uncertainty in Jobless Recoveries∗

The three most recent downturns, in contrast with other post-war recessions, are characterized by slow recoveries in employment despite positive economic growth. I find that recent recoveries coincide with high uncertainty about economy-wide corporate profits at a time when output begins to rebound, a pattern that was not observed in the earlier recessions. To examine the role of uncertainty in...

Optimal allocation of trend following strategies

We consider a portfolio allocation problem for trend following (TF) strategies on multiple correlated assets. Under simplifying assumptions of a Gaussian market and linear TF strategies, we derive analytical formulas for the mean and variance of the portfolio return. We construct then the optimal portfolio thatmaximizes risk-adjusted return by accounting for inter-asset correlations. The dynami...

Deepening Divides in Jobless Recovery

Foreign outsourcing, otherwise known as off-shoring, has become a matter of intense public debate and great concern in the United States presidential contest, especially in light of the large job losses experienced by U.S. workers since George Bush became president. Yet, there is a lack of good data on foreign outsourcing since the early 1990s. This paper presents updated measures of foreign ou...

A Century of Evidence on Trend-Following Investing